Ukraine conflict raises geopolitical tension to level unprecedented since end of Cold War

SHINE | 28-May-2022 | By Zhou Anna

After Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” in Ukraine’s Donbas region in the early hours of February 24 local time, the Ukraine situation took an abrupt change or, in the words of a number of analysts, pitched to a level of geopolitical tension unprecedented since the end of the Cold War.

According to Yang Bo, deputy director of the Center for Russian Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, after Putin signed decrees recognizing the independence of two self-proclaimed regions in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas as “the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR)” and “the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)” on February 21, many analysts ruled out large-scale conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the near future. Yang said while Putin’s move on the 21st was expected in the long-standing confrontation, the war on the 24th even took some Russian analysts by surprise, with some believing this to be the last resort for Russia. “The visible trigger for war is most likely a fatal mistake made earlier by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,” Yang said, referring to Zelensky’s speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 19. Zelensky asked the West to “send a clear signal” about Ukraine’s NATO membership prospects, saying that Ukraine cannot continue to serve as a “shield” for the West against Russia. He added his country deserved more international support for keeping one of the world’s most powerful armies out of its borders for the past eight years.

He also questioned the validity of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, claiming that Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons but now has “neither weapons nor security.” Russian TV network RT interpreted this as Zelensky “threatens to acquire world’s deadliest weapons, and his nation will have every right to become a nuclear power.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Nikolai Zakharova responded on February 24 that Zelensky’s remarks about regaining nuclear weapons resulted in a fundamental shift in relations between Russia and Ukraine. And on the same day, Putin told representatives of Russia’s business community that what is happening is a measure that Russia is being forced to take and that “we are simply not left with the opportunity to choose other ways of behavior.” Yang said while the war is clearly a worst-case scenario for Russia, given the eight years of tensions between Ukraine and Russia, and Putin’s previous hope for a diplomatic solution, Ukraine’s abrupt change in its nuclear stance tilted the balance.

According to the latest news from Reuters on February 25, the mayor of Kyiv said the Ukrainian capital had entered into “a defensive phase”. Putin stated in a televised speech on the February 24 that the purpose of the “special military operation” was “self-defense,” and emphasized that Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine. Yang believed this “special military operation” will be marked by quick and precise strikes on some strategic military facilities in Ukraine, such as airports, and will not be a large-scale operation leading to a large number of casualties. As for Ukraine, given its current military strength, it will not last long, and thus the situation is unlikely to spiral out of control.

In fact, Zelensky had already been in hot water at home and abroad prior to the conflict. SPUTNIK reported that the “Opposition Platform – For Life” party issued a statement calling for Zelensky’s resignation, just as he was trying to deal with Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s eastern regions’ independence.

The opposition party has 44 seats in Ukraine’s parliament, accounting for approximately 10 percent of the total. However, some commentators have pointed out that now is not the time for the Ukrainian government to change its president, and that Zelensky’s government will at the very least keep Ukraine from devolving into chaos.

Sanctions

The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Japan have imposed sanctions on Russia in the political, financial, and energy sectors, targeting Russian banks and suspending the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline certification process. According to Edward Hunter Christie, a senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Europe and its allies appear to favor a gradual approach to sanctions against Russia. “They are not the most powerful economic measures, but they have a high symbolic value as a signal to show their resolve or credibility,” she said. In terms of the sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom, some Conservative lawmakers in the country were dissatisfied with the government actions, with some believing the sanctions were more symbolic than substantive because the banks targeted by the sanctions were completely unaffected by the United Kingdom.

At a matter of fact, Russia has developed a strong “protective shell” after years of existing sanctions. According to Julia Friedlander, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Russia has worked hard in recent years to stockpile enough foreign currency, gold, and other assets to survive temporarily in isolation from Western credit and markets. And that its economy has become more “self-sufficient,” able to withstand the pressures of sanctions.

A recent analysis in the New York Times concurred, saying that the Russian government has been trying for years to restructure its budget and finances in order to withstand the pressure of sanctions. Furthermore, recent high oil and gas prices in the energy market have aided Russia in easing its economic crisis.

It is more difficult to predict the winner of the conflict.

From a purely military perspective, Russia will probably neutralize Ukraine’s military capabilities in a short period of time, some analysts say. But the United States stands to win on more fronts, they say, adding that the US may sell more weapons to European countries, and if Nord Stream 2 is suspended, Europe will import more oil and natural gas from the United States.

However, the US’s winnings on political front are more uncertain. As Yang observed, since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, there has been significant disagreement between the US and its traditional European allies, with the US increasingly perceived as a weakening unipolar force within NATO.

“There may be an economic benefit for the US, but Biden did not ‘save’ Ukraine this time, and many other promises to its allies have not been fulfilled,” Yang concluded. “Given its loss in prestige and leadership role among its allies, it would be hard to be described as a winner.” In terms of the far-reaching consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Yang noted that it means the global power balance will inevitably be disrupted, adding that the current crisis in Ukraine is not merely a regional crisis. In this age of information, all parties are engaged in an information war competing for the support of netizens, with significant political and national repercussions.